1. Overview
This pseudocode describes one full CTM timestep under v1.3, including:
- Event ingestion
- Domain stress mapping
- Governance + friction modifiers
- Centralized Initiator State (CIS) effects
- Dual-component load (Baseline + Transient)
- Cross-domain cascades
- Threshold drift and meta-state determination
- Trajectory classification
It assumes CTM v1.2 is already implemented, and extends it; v1.3 is active only when CIS = 1.
2. Data Structures
// Domain identifiersDOMAINS = ["EXECUTIVE","LEGISLATURE","JUDICIARY","NORMS","SECURITY","ECONOMY","MEDIA","CIVIC"]// Per-domain state at time t (input) and t+1 (output)struct DomainState {float Load // Total load_i(t)float BaselineLoad // BaselineLoad_i(t)float TransientLoad // TransientLoad_i(t)float ST // Stability Threshold ST_ifloat CST // Cascading Stress Threshold CST_ifloat LBT // Local Break Threshold LBT_ifloat CCT // Critical Collapse Threshold CCT_ifloat SUL // Stress Uptake Level SUL_ifloat DriftRate // Current drift rate for thresholdsfloat DriftStability // Stability of threshold dynamicsfloat ForcingRate // ForcingRate_i(t)float InstitutionalControl // InstitutionalControl_i ∈ [0,1]float CFC_base // Base Composite Friction Coefficient (system-level or per-domain)float CFC_effective // Effective CFC under CISfloat GFM // Governance Feedback Multiplierfloat FFM // Friction Feedback Multiplierfloat DecayRate // DecayRate_i(t)float PrimaryShocks // PrimaryShocks_i(t)float CascadedShocks // CascadedShocks_i(t)float ThresholdVolatility // Volatility metric for thresholds}// System-wide statestruct SystemState {map<Domain, DomainState> domainsfloat SystemLoad // Σ_i Load_i(t)float NormalizedSystemLoad // SystemLoad / Σ Load_i_maxstring MetaState // "NORMAL", "ELEVATED", "CASCADE", "FAILURE", "RECONFIG"string TrajectoryClass // "6A", "6B", "6C", "6D", etc.int ReconfigDuration // Consecutive timesteps in RECONFIG meta-stateint TimeStep // tint CIS // 0 or 1 (Centralized Initiator State)string GovernanceStyle // e.g. "CDG" or others from Governance Styles v1.0}// Model parameters (global)const float Load_i_max = 10000.0const float BaselineDecayRate = 0.05 // Default, adjustable in [0.01, 0.10]const float MaxForcingRate = 50.0const float PropagationDecay = 0.7 // Default, allowed range [0.5, 0.8]const int MaxCascadeDepth = 2const float MaxCascadeLoadFrac = 0.5 // CascadedShocks cap = 0.5 * Load_i_maxconst float CascadeAmplification = 0.3 // 30% amplification of GFM/FFM in CASCADEconst float CDGFeedbackAmplification = 0.2 // 20% for CDG when CIS=1const float DriftAmplificationFactor = 0.5 // +50% drift in saturation regimesconst float DriftStabilityReduction = 0.3 // -30% stability in saturation regimesconst float CorrelationFactor = 1.3 // 30% coupling amplification on correlated crossingsconst float VolatilityThreshold = some_small_value // Implementation choice// Cross-domain coupling matrix C[i][j] (from Appendix A)float C[8][8] // base coupling coefficientsfloat C_eff[8][8] // effective coupling under CIS and correlation// Meta-state thresholds on NormalizedSystemLoadconst float NSL_NORMAL_MAX = 0.25const float NSL_ELEVATED_MAX = 0.45const float NSL_CASCADE_MAX = 0.70const float NSL_FAILURE_MAX = 0.90// NSL ≥ 0.90 → RECONFIG// Reconfiguration classificationconst int ReconfigThreshold = N // number of timesteps at RECONFIG before class 6D, choose N>=2
3. Input Event Structure
// Events for timestep t (after Event Parsing step)struct Event {string idstring domain // Primary domain affected (one of DOMAINS)float magnitude // Raw stress magnitudechar polarity // '+', '-', 'C', 'D', etc. per CTM Modelmap<string, any> tags // Additional classification from CTM Model (e.g., NSS tags)}// After mapping to domain impacts:struct DomainImpact {float EffectiveImpact // EffectiveImpact_i(t) after all CTM Model transformations}
DomainImpacts are derived from the CTM Model v1.0 / CTM Process v1.2 logic and are assumed to be available to the v1.3 step.
4. Main Timestep Function
function CTM_STEP_V1_3(prev_state: SystemState,events: list<Event>,domain_impacts: map<Domain, DomainImpact>,analyst_inputs: map<string, any>) -> SystemState:state = copy(prev_state)t = prev_state.TimeStep//----------------------------------------------------// STEP 0: Update time//----------------------------------------------------state.TimeStep = t + 1//----------------------------------------------------// STEP 1: Determine CIS and Governance Context//----------------------------------------------------state.CIS = DETECT_CIS(analyst_inputs, events, domain_impacts, prev_state)// GovernanceStyle may be fixed per scenario or updated externally// E.g., "CDG" when NSS-like centralized directive governance is in effectstate.GovernanceStyle = analyst_inputs["GovernanceStyle"]//----------------------------------------------------// STEP 2: Prepare Per-Domain ForcingRates and Impacts//----------------------------------------------------for each domain d in DOMAINS:// 2.1 Estimate or read ForcingRate_i(t) from analyst inputs or event densitystate.domains[d].ForcingRate = CLAMP(COMPUTE_FORCING_RATE(d, events, domain_impacts, analyst_inputs),0.0,MaxForcingRate)// 2.2 Pull EffectiveImpact_i(t) from domain_impacts (v1.2 logic)// This is used in primary shock calculation// If no impact, EffectiveImpact defaults to 0if d not in domain_impacts:domain_impacts[d] = DomainImpact(EffectiveImpact = 0.0)//----------------------------------------------------// STEP 3: Compute Governance Feedback (GFM) and Friction (FFM)// including CDG and CIS effects//----------------------------------------------------for each domain d in DOMAINS:dom = state.domains[d]// 3.1 Compute base GFM_i(t-1) using CTM v1.2 governance style logicdom.GFM = COMPUTE_GFM_V1_2(d, prev_state)// 3.2 Compute base CFC (system-level or per-domain) using v1.2dom.CFC_base = COMPUTE_CFC_V1_2(d, prev_state)// 3.3 Apply friction suppression under CIS (Section 6.9)if state.CIS == 1:// InstitutionalControl_i comes from governance style profile (e.g., CDG table)dom.InstitutionalControl = GET_INSTITUTIONAL_CONTROL(d, state.GovernanceStyle)dom.CFC_effective = dom.CFC_base * (1.0 - dom.InstitutionalControl)else:dom.CFC_effective = dom.CFC_base// InstitutionalControl still recorded but not suppressing frictiondom.InstitutionalControl = GET_INSTITUTIONAL_CONTROL(d, state.GovernanceStyle)// 3.4 Compute FFM_i(t-1) using effective CFC via v1.2 formuladom.FFM = COMPUTE_FFM_V1_2(d, prev_state, dom.CFC_effective)// 3.5 Apply CDG-specific feedback amplification when CIS=1 (Section: CDG)if state.GovernanceStyle == "CDG" and state.CIS == 1:dom.GFM = dom.GFM * (1.0 + CDGFeedbackAmplification)dom.FFM = dom.FFM * (1.0 + CDGFeedbackAmplification)// Persist backstate.domains[d] = dom//----------------------------------------------------// STEP 4: Compute PrimaryShocks_i(t)//----------------------------------------------------for each domain d in DOMAINS:dom = state.domains[d]// v1.2 primary shock logic:// PrimaryShocks_i(t) = Σ_j [EffectiveImpact_j(t) * GFM_i(t-1) * FFM_i(t-1)]// Here simplified: each domain uses its own EffectiveImpactNOTE: simplified (no cross-domain impact matrix). Production can swap in full CTM Model mapping.dom.PrimaryShocks = domain_impacts[d].EffectiveImpact * dom.GFM * dom.FFM// If you use full cross-domain impact mapping, plug that in here instead.state.domains[d] = dom//----------------------------------------------------// STEP 5: Compute Cross-Domain Coupling Matrix C_eff//----------------------------------------------------C_eff = INITIALIZE_C_EFFECTIVE(C, state)// 5.1 Apply meta-state correlation amplification later, after threshold crossings// (we need loads first for that, so we’ll revisit C_eff after meta-state step if needed)//----------------------------------------------------// STEP 6: Compute DecayRate_i(t) (Base, before meta-state modification)//----------------------------------------------------for each domain d in DOMAINS:dom = state.domains[d]// Base v1.2 decay rate:// DecayRate_i_base = (1 - SUL_i * 0.05) * ThresholdStateMultiplier(t-1)DecayRate_base = COMPUTE_DECAY_RATE_BASE_V1_2(d, prev_state)dom.DecayRate = DecayRate_basestate.domains[d] = dom//----------------------------------------------------// STEP 7: Compute BaselineLoad_i(t+1) (Sustained Forcing)//----------------------------------------------------for each domain d in DOMAINS:dom = state.domains[d]if state.CIS == 1:// BaselineLoad_i(t+1) = BaselineLoad_i(t) * (1 - BaselineDecayRate)// + ForcingRate_i(t)dom.BaselineLoad = dom.BaselineLoad * (1.0 - BaselineDecayRate) \+ dom.ForcingRateelse:// No sustained forcing when CIS=0dom.BaselineLoad = 0.0state.domains[d] = dom//----------------------------------------------------// STEP 8: Compute Cascade-Active Domains and CascadedShocks//----------------------------------------------------// First, we need the current Load_i(t) to decide cascade activation.// At this stage, Load_i(t) = prev_state.domains[d].Load (from t).// 8.1 Identify cascade-active domains based on CST_iset<Domain> CascadeActiveDomains = {}for each domain d in DOMAINS:prev_dom = prev_state.domains[d]dom = state.domains[d]dom.CascadedShocks = 0.0 // reset for this timestep# Mark domains that are in cascade range at time t.# NOTE: We intentionally use Load_i(t) (prev_dom.Load) here:# - Cascades at timestep t propagate shocks generated at t# - Activation is based on pre-update load, consistent with v1.3 spec.if prev_dom.Load >= prev_dom.CST:CascadeActiveDomains.add(d)state.domains[d] = dom// 8.2 Initialize cascade depth tracking// Depth 1: direct cascades from primary shocks at this timestep// Depth 2: one additional hop (MaxCascadeDepth = 2)map<Domain, int> CascadeDepth = {}for each domain d in DOMAINS:if d in CascadeActiveDomains:CascadeDepth[d] = 1else:CascadeDepth[d] = 0// 8.3 First-pass cascade propagation (depth 1)for each domain i in CascadeActiveDomains:shock_i = state.domains[i].PrimaryShocks // or some function of shock magnitudefor each domain j in DOMAINS:if j == i:continue// Prevent i -> j if we already defined cycle rules (none at depth 1)propagated = shock_i * C_eff[i][j] * PropagationDecaystate.domains[j].CascadedShocks += propagated// 8.4 Second-pass propagation (depth 2), with cycle prevention// Mark which domains received cascades at depth 1set<Domain> Depth1Recipients = {}for each domain d in DOMAINS:if state.domains[d].CascadedShocks > 0.0:Depth1Recipients.add(d)// Now propagate from those that are cascade-active and have depth 1for each domain i in DOMAINS:if CascadeDepth[i] != 1:continue // only depth-1 sourcesif state.domains[i].CascadedShocks <= 0.0:continue// Depth-2 propagationshock_i = state.domains[i].CascadedShocksfor each domain j in DOMAINS:if j == i:continue// Cycle prevention: j cannot cascade back to any domain that cascaded to it in same cycle.// Minimal version: do not propagate if j was the source for i at depth 1.if j in CascadeActiveDomains and i in Depth1Recipients:continuepropagated = shock_i * C_eff[i][j] * PropagationDecay// Depth 2 contributionstate.domains[j].CascadedShocks += propagated// 8.5 Apply cap on CascadedShocks per domainfor each domain d in DOMAINS:dom = state.domains[d]maxCascadeLoad = MaxCascadeLoadFrac * Load_i_maxif dom.CascadedShocks > maxCascadeLoad:dom.CascadedShocks = maxCascadeLoadstate.domains[d] = dom//----------------------------------------------------// STEP 9: Update TransientLoad_i(t+1)//----------------------------------------------------for each domain d in DOMAINS:dom = state.domains[d]// TransientLoad_i(t+1) = TransientLoad_i(t) * DecayRate_i(t)// + PrimaryShocks_i(t)// + CascadedShocks_i(t)dom.TransientLoad = dom.TransientLoad * dom.DecayRate \+ dom.PrimaryShocks \+ dom.CascadedShocksstate.domains[d] = dom//----------------------------------------------------// STEP 10: Compute Total Load_i(t+1) and Clamp//----------------------------------------------------for each domain d in DOMAINS:dom = state.domains[d]total = dom.BaselineLoad + dom.TransientLoadif total < 0.0:total = 0.0if total > Load_i_max:total = Load_i_maxdom.Load = totalstate.domains[d] = dom//----------------------------------------------------// STEP 11: Compute SystemLoad and NormalizedSystemLoad//----------------------------------------------------float sumLoads = 0.0float sumMaxLoads = 0.0for each domain d in DOMAINS:sumLoads += state.domains[d].LoadsumMaxLoads += Load_i_maxstate.SystemLoad = sumLoadsstate.NormalizedSystemLoad = sumLoads / sumMaxLoads//----------------------------------------------------// STEP 12: Determine Meta-State from NormalizedSystemLoad//----------------------------------------------------prevMeta = prev_state.MetaStateif state.NormalizedSystemLoad < NSL_NORMAL_MAX:state.MetaState = "NORMAL"else if state.NormalizedSystemLoad < NSL_ELEVATED_MAX:state.MetaState = "ELEVATED"else if state.NormalizedSystemLoad < NSL_CASCADE_MAX:state.MetaState = "CASCADE"else if state.NormalizedSystemLoad < NSL_FAILURE_MAX:state.MetaState = "FAILURE"else:state.MetaState = "RECONFIG"// Track Reconfiguration durationif state.MetaState == "RECONFIG":state.ReconfigDuration = prev_state.ReconfigDuration + 1else:state.ReconfigDuration = 0//----------------------------------------------------// STEP 13: Adjust DecayRate_i(t) based on Meta-State//----------------------------------------------------for each domain d in DOMAINS:dom = state.domains[d]// dom.DecayRate already holds base v1.2 rateif state.MetaState == "CASCADE":dom.DecayRate = dom.DecayRate * 0.8 // 20% slowerelse if state.MetaState == "FAILURE" or state.MetaState == "RECONFIG":dom.DecayRate = dom.DecayRate * 0.7 // 30% slower// else NORMAL/ELEVATED: unchangedstate.domains[d] = dom//----------------------------------------------------// STEP 14: Threshold Drift and Volatility under Saturation//----------------------------------------------------// Apply only in CASCADE/FAILURE/RECONFIGif state.MetaState == "CASCADE" orstate.MetaState == "FAILURE" orstate.MetaState == "RECONFIG":for each domain d in DOMAINS:dom = state.domains[d]prevDom = prev_state.domains[d]// 14.1 Amplify DriftRatedom.DriftRate = prevDom.DriftRate * (1.0 + DriftAmplificationFactor)dom.DriftStability = prevDom.DriftStability * (1.0 - DriftStabilityReduction)// Apply drift to thresholds (simplified)# TODO: replace with APPLY_DRIFT_V1_2(...) from CTM Process v1.2 Section 8dom.ST = dom.ST + dom.DriftRate * some_factor_STdom.CST = dom.CST + dom.DriftRate * some_factor_CSTdom.LBT = dom.LBT + dom.DriftRate * some_factor_LBTdom.CCT = dom.CCT + dom.DriftRate * some_factor_CCT// 14.2 Compute ThresholdVolatility_i(t)dom.ThresholdVolatility = ABS(dom.DriftRate - prevDom.DriftRate)// Optional: flag domain as unstable if above thresholdif dom.ThresholdVolatility > VolatilityThreshold:FLAG_DOMAIN_AS_UNSTABLE(d, state)state.domains[d] = domelse:// NORMAL/ELEVATED: use v1.2 drift logic unchangedfor each domain d in DOMAINS:state.domains[d] = APPLY_DRIFT_V1_2(d, prev_state, state.domains[d])//----------------------------------------------------// STEP 15: Correlated Threshold Crossings and CorrelationFactor//----------------------------------------------------// 15.1 Detect correlated crossings of CST/LBT for this timestepset<Domain> CrossingDomains = {}for each domain d in DOMAINS:dom = state.domains[d]prevDom = prev_state.domains[d]// Example: crossing CST or LBT upward// Cascade activation uses Load(t) (prev_state) and threshold crossing into CST/LBT at this timestep.if prevDom.Load < prevDom.CST and dom.Load >= dom.CST:CrossingDomains.add(d)else if prevDom.Load < prevDom.LBT and dom.Load >= dom.LBT:CrossingDomains.add(d)bool correlated = (SIZE(CrossingDomains) >= 2)// 15.2 If correlated, amplify coupling for next timestep’s cascadesif correlated:for each domain i in CrossingDomains:for each domain j in CrossingDomains:if i == j: continueC_eff[i][j] = CLAMP(C_eff[i][j] * CorrelationFactor, 0.0, 1.0)STORE_COUPLING_MATRIX_IN_STATE(C_eff)// Note: Implementation choice:// - You can store C_eff back into state for use in t+1,// or treat it as a transient adjustment for this timestep only.// Note: v1.3 implementation choice:// - Here we persist the amplified C_eff into state so it affects// cascade propagation in the NEXT timestep.// - Implementations MUST ensure INITIALIZE_C_EFFECTIVE reads this// stored matrix when reconstructing C_eff at t+1.//----------------------------------------------------// STEP 16: Apply Cascade Amplification to GFM/FFM in CASCADE meta-state//----------------------------------------------------if state.MetaState == "CASCADE":for each domain d in DOMAINS:dom = state.domains[d]dom.GFM = dom.GFM * (1.0 + CascadeAmplification)dom.FFM = dom.FFM * (1.0 + CascadeAmplification)state.domains[d] = dom//----------------------------------------------------// STEP 17: Trajectory Classification (6A–6D)//----------------------------------------------------state.TrajectoryClass = CLASSIFY_TRAJECTORY(state, prev_state)//----------------------------------------------------// STEP 18: Return Updated State//----------------------------------------------------return state
5. Helper Functions (Skeletons)
You can fill these in directly from v1.2 + v1.3 text.
function DETECT_CIS(analyst_inputs, events, domain_impacts, prev_state) -> int:// Analyst-driven, but guided by v1.3 criteria:// - Centralized executive origin// - Coordinated timing across domains// - Strategic intent to reconfigure baseline// - Evidence of friction bypass (executive overriding institutions)if analyst_inputs["CIS_OVERRIDE"] exists:return analyst_inputs["CIS_OVERRIDE"]else:// default heuristic or 0return 0function COMPUTE_FORCING_RATE(domain, events, domain_impacts, analyst_inputs) -> float:// Example: use count or weighted impact of policy-type events per timestepbase_rate = analyst_inputs["ForcingRateOverrides"].get(domain, 0.0)// or derive from events tagged as sustained policy forcing// This is intentionally analyst-tuned.return base_ratefunction INITIALIZE_C_EFFECTIVE(C, state) -> matrix:# Load prior cycle's amplified coupling matrix if it exists.# This ensures that correlated-threshold amplification carries forward# to the next timestep (1-cycle lag, per v1.3 specification).if state.has("PersistedCoupling"):C_eff = DEEP_COPY(state.PersistedCoupling)else:C_eff = new matrix same size as Cfor all i,j:C_eff[i][j] = C[i][j]# Centralized Initiator State comes from system stateCIS = state.CIS# If CIS = 0, coupling stays at v1.2 baseline and we’re done.if CIS == 0:return C_eff# Amplification only under CIS=1 (centralized initiator regime)CouplingAmplification = DEFAULT_COUPLING_AMPLIFICATION # e.g., 0.5for all i,j:C_eff[i][j] = C_eff[i][j] * (1.0 + CouplingAmplification)if C_eff[i][j] > 1.0:C_eff[i][j] = 1.0# Persist into state for next timestep (correlation adjustments may modify it later)state.PersistedCoupling = DEEP_COPY(C_eff)return C_efffunction STORE_COUPLING_MATRIX_IN_STATE(C_eff):
# Persist correlation-amplified coupling matrix for the next timestep.
# This overwrites any previous persistence so that the latest
# correlation effects are carried forward.
state.PersistedCoupling = DEEP_COPY(C_eff)# TODO: replace with APPLY_DRIFT_V1_2(...) from CTM Process v1.2 Section 8function COMPUTE_GFM_V1_2(domain, prev_state) -> float:// Use existing CTM v1.2 governance feedback logic...function COMPUTE_CFC_V1_2(domain, prev_state) -> float:// Use existing v1.2 friction composite calculation...# TODO: replace with APPLY_DRIFT_V1_2(...) from CTM Process v1.2 Section 8function COMPUTE_FFM_V1_2(domain, prev_state, CFC_effective) -> float:// Use v1.2 friction feedback logic, substituting CFC_effective...# TODO: replace with APPLY_DRIFT_V1_2(...) from CTM Process v1.2 Section 8function COMPUTE_DECAY_RATE_BASE_V1_2(domain, prev_state) -> float:// (1 - SUL_i * 0.05) * ThresholdStateMultiplier(t-1)...function APPLY_DRIFT_V1_2(domain, prev_state, dom_state) -> DomainState:// Original threshold drift logic...function GET_INSTITUTIONAL_CONTROL(domain, governance_style) -> float:if governance_style == "CDG":// Use table from v1.3 CDG sectionswitch(domain):case "EXECUTIVE": return 0.9case "LEGISLATURE": return 0.4case "JUDICIARY": return 0.2case "NORMS": return 0.6case "SECURITY": return 0.7case "ECONOMY": return 0.5case "MEDIA": return 0.3case "CIVIC": return 0.4else:// Other governance styles can define their own mappingsreturn DEFAULT_INSTITUTIONAL_CONTROL(domain, governance_style)function CLASSIFY_TRAJECTORY(state, prev_state) -> string:// Use v1.2 logic for 6A/6B/6C based on:// - direction of SystemLoad// - stability of thresholds// - OscillationIndex, etc.// Then add v1.3 rule for 6D:if state.MetaState == "RECONFIG" and state.ReconfigDuration >= ReconfigThreshold:return "6D" // Reconfiguration Trajectoryelse:// Fall back to 6A/6B/6C classification logicreturn CLASSIFY_6A_6B_6C(state, prev_state)